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Six advantages of dividend investing: a critical assessment Print
sp500_yield_chart.jpgWhat are the benefits of dividend investing? In this commentary, we look at the six main arguments put forward by proponents of this approach to investing: a source of regular, tax-favored income characterized by above-average returns, offering down-side protection in bear markets, facilitating dollar cost averaging investing, and inducing corporate management to deliver more stable, better-reported earnings. What’s not to like? The arguments seem compelling, but on second look, lose some of their luster. In a subsequent commentary in our series on dividend investing we will look at the disadvantages.
General

Dividend investing is very popular. There are at least one (American) book called All About Dividend Investing, 2005, by Don Schreiber Jr.. and Gary Stroik (see also an article by Schreiber (also in PDF doc.1461 PDF)
and many recent articles on the Internet, including by:
In this commentary we look at the benefits most often attributed to this investment strategy.

Attractive total return

As we explained in our first commentary, some studies suggest that an investment policy that gives preference to dividend paying shares would produce a better total return (yield + capital gains).

Lowell Miller published an article doc.1458 on the US market between 1993 and 2007, concluding that dividend investing gives favorable overall returns. Tom Connolly in an article doc.1460 reviewing the Canadian market between1977 to 2005 reached the same conclusion. Tweedy Browne doc.1457 has published a summary of various studies on the markets in the US, UK and elsewhere in order to stress the importance of dividends in the very long term.

But we note that these studies are not conclusive or consistent:

  • some stress the need not only to receive but also to reinvest dividends to achieve superior overall returns (Dimson, Marsh Staunton);
  • others say only that dividends are a major factor only in the long-term (Arnott) 
  • others are based on equity investments in equal amounts, rather than according to their market value (market-cap), an approach that departs significantly from the market and can give a portfolio with higher risk (Keppler); 
  • certain studies attribute the best returns to shares paying the highest dividends (i.e. first quartile), while others conclude that it is shares in the second quartile  that gave the best returns. 
  • few of these studies seem to adjust their results to reflect the greater risk associated with investing in a sub-section of the overall market (for instance, only 72.6% of S&P 500 listed companies currently pay dividends, and that percentage decreases as an investor invests in the highest yielding shares; see Indicated Dividend Changes in S&P ).

Despite the studies which they themselves carried out or quote from, Miller and Tweedy are very cautious in their conclusions. Miller merely says that dividends are only a factor to consider in your investment policy. Tweedy does the same, insisting that only the very long term performance is interesting (the importance of dividends, and the association of high dividend yields with attractive investment returns over long measurement periods).

So what to think?


Better returns: an optical illusion?

Our concern in all these studies is the risk of what Bogle calls data-mining (a charge he throws out in a debate with Siegel on the value of dividend investing; see Siegel vs Bogle-data-mining added weight to dividends (or PDF version doc.1465)  ), i.e. developing rules for choosing your future investments based on a selective analysis of past data.
There's nothing wrong with investing with a value or a dividend focus. I would never claim that value never wins. The idea of the value index was to give a perfectly legitimate investment strategy to investors who were a little more conservative and wanted a little more income, and it's worked just fine.
One of the problems, in my judgment, with value weighting in general and dividend weighting in particular, is that it sometimes wins and sometimes it does not. I've been critical of this, what I call data mining in the period. You bring out a fund when it has proved itself and not when it has failed to prove itself. (emphasis added)
But critics of dividend investing go further. The whole field of dividends is subject to controversy. For example, most investors consider dividend-paying shares as securities offering no prospect of rapid growth, while Arnott has published a study (or as PDF doc.1466 PDF) claiming that the higher the percentage of profits paid out in dividends, the greater the prospect of future growth. 

Fischer Black , one of the greatest American economists (his untimely death likely prevented him from receiving a Nobel Prize), in an article published in 1976, recognizes that it is possible that many individual investors may be unwilling to hold shares that do not pay dividends, or agree to hold them only at reduced prices compared to those of similar companies. According to him, such a belief is irrational and causes problems for companies:
 
It is possible that many, many individual investors believe that stocks that don't pay dividends should not be held, or should be held at prices lower than the price of similar stocks that do pay dividends. This belief is not rational, so far as I can tell. But it may be there nevertheless.
Add these investors to the trustees who believe it is prudent not to hold stocks that pay no dividends and to the corporations that have tax reasons for preferring dividend-paying stocks and you may have a substantial share of the market. More important, you may also have a share of the market that strongly influences the pricing of corporate shares. Perhaps the best evidence of this is the dominance of this view in investment advisory publications.
On the other hand investors seem acutely aware of the tax consequences of dividends. Investors in high tax brackets seem to hold low-dividend stocks, and investors in low tax brackets seem to hold high-dividend stocks.
Furthermore the best empirical tests that I can think of are unable to show investors who prefer whether investors or investors who avoid dividends have a stronger effect on the pricing of securities.
If investors do demand dividends, then corporations should not eliminate all dividends. But it is difficult if not impossible to tell whether investors demand dividends or not. So it is hard for a corporation to decide whether to eliminate its dividends or not.
Corporations can not tell what dividend policy to choose, because they do not know how many irrational investors there are. Source: The Dividend Puzzle, p. 12 in the book Streetwise: The Best of The Journal of Portfolio Management compiled by Bernstein and Fabozzi, 1998, Princeton University Press. 
If you visit investment forums you will quickly find that opinions are all over the map on the importance or significance of dividends or dividend investing; for two examples, see the excellent forum Bogleheads and also this additionnal  discussion on the same forum.

Economists and financial-types can go on at great length discussing the value of an investment policy based on dividends, as evidenced by this excerpt from an article doc.1468 by Mimi Lord published in the Financial Planning Journal recording a debate in 2002 between Roger Ibbotson of Yale University and the investor and author Robert Arnott:

Lord: Rob, I understand that your model for equity returns basically consists of the current dividend yield plus an expected dividend growth rate. What numbers are you using for the current yield and the growth rate, and why do you prefer a model instead of dividend earnings model year?
Arnott: The dividend model is simpler. Long-term returns consist of the dividend yield plus dividend growth, plus or minus changes in the price / dividend ratio, which is the amount that the marketplace will pay for one dollar of dividends. A similar earnings-based model consists of the earnings yield, times the payout ratio, the more earnings growth rate, plus or minus changes in the price / earnings ratio. For long-term returns, unless we want to rely on some
forecast for changing valuation levels, this last term drops off. And today's dividend yield and earnings yield are simple facts, easy to look up in The Wall Street Journal any day we choose.
So, for a dividend-based model, we have to forecast one "moving part," while for an earnings-based model, we have to forecast two. The problem is that history suggests that earnings or dividends can grow about one to two percent faster than inflation, and can not grow as fast as the economy at large. When yields are as low as they are today, this leads to a rather wretched forward-looking return.
Lord: Does your model imply any change in the dividend yield toward its historical average of over four percent?
Arnott: We deliberately choose not to assume a change in the dividend yield towards its historical average. We do so both to simplify the problem to a single "moving hand" and in deference to the efficient markets crowd, who believe that the best guess for future valuation levels is unchanged from the current valuation level. If we were to assume a return to past dividend yield levels, the picture becomes indeed gloomy.
Lord: Roger, why do you prefer the model to the earnings dividend model for forecasting equity returns?
Ibbotson: Contrary to what Rob believes, the dividend model is only deceptively simple. This is because it implicitly assumes a constant payout ratio and explicitly ignores another important "moving part." In contrast, the earnings model explicitly takes into account the payout ratio, which, as we all know, has been in a long-term secular decline. By using today's low dividend yield and payout ratios,  Rob's dividend model ignores the extra earnings retention as a source of future earnings growth. This violates the basic Miller and Modigliani dividend proposal for which they won Nobel prizes. I know Rob seems to believe that this is okay, that corporations just waste their retained earnings, but that would be a rather extreme result. (emphasis added)

Merton Miller , Nobel laureate in economics, has written several times about the significance of dividends. In his article Do dividends matter? doc.1469 he describes the debate as follows:
There are few aspects of corporate financial policy where the gap between the academics and the practitioners is larger than that of dividend policy. The academic consensus is that dividends really do not matter very much. The market does not, and should not be expected to, pay premium prices for adopter firms what are sometimes called "generous" dividend policies. If anything, generous dividends may actually cause the shares to
sell at a discount because of the tax penalties on dividends as opposed to capital gains. Most practitioners on the other hand, both among officials and corporate investment bankers, still continues to insist that a firm's dividend policy matters a great deal.
p. 3 of 15 (emphasis added)
His conclusion, presented at the beginning of this article, is that the importance of dividends is an optical illusion:

I'1l argue that the seeming evidence that dividends do matter-evidence I hope at least some of you believe, so that I'm not just preaching to the choir, is not to be trusted. It's an optical illusion. (emphasis added)
He explains this optical illusion by analyzing how financial markets react to press releases announcing a change  the dividend policy of a company
In sum, unexpected dividend actions in a world of rational expectations provide the market with clues about unexpected changes in earnings. These in turn trigger the price
movements that look like -but only look like- responses to the dividends themselves. p. 14 of 15
You will understand that for Miller it is the level of current or anticipated profits, and not the dividends, which is paramount.

Some brokers have accepted this conclusion and developed their own analysis’s challenging studies that claim to see a better return for shares that pay dividends. Here is an example by the U.S. broker Schwab:
Myth No. 1: dividend-yielders outperform
Back in the 1980s and 1990s, many academic studies found that dividend-paying stocks provided historically the best of all worlds-above-average total returns with below-average risk. The result: a flood of ETF’s designed to capture the potential performance advantages of higher-yielding stocks. But in reality, Schwab research has found that dividend-paying stocks have generally underperformed non-dividend-payers over the past 18 years (see "Dividend-paying stocks have underperformed"). Among dividend-paying stocks, we found no material return or risk differences between stocks with high, medium or low dividend yields. (or as PDF doc.1470 PDF)
But even more significantly (for us) is that many authors recognize the major contribution of dividends to total shareholder return (and accept the related Gordon equation, the theory that we discussed in the first commentary in this series) but put aside this approach when it comes time to choosing their own investments; for them it is a useful technique to assess if the overall market over the long term is overvalued, but it is not a useful technique to try to beat the market by selecting individual securities. An example? See what William Bernstein has to say about the Gordon Equation:
The best prediction of asset-class returns probably comes from simply adding the coupon rate or dividend to the earnings-or dividend-growth rate. (This is referred to, somewhat grandiosely, as the "Gordon equation" and falls out of the discounted dividend model.) John Bogle calls this simple sum the fundamental return. Unfortunately, in the short term this estimate often gets thrown for a loop by changes in multiple asset class (or in Bogle's lexicon, by the speculative return). For example, if an asset valuation doubles in the space of a year, then that asset's return will be about 100%, since this will dwarf the contribution of the dividend and growth sum. But over long periods of time, the speculative return washes out, leaving only the fundamental return.
 
This article, then, is a tour d'horizon of our best estimates of the fundamental returns for the asset class universe. Please, please, do not take these estimates as short-term predictions (and by "short term" we mean anything less than 20 years). As Newton famously said, "I can predict the motion of heavenly planets, but not the madness of human beings." Translated into Bogelese, all we can do is discuss expected fundamental returns. We'll leave speculative returns to Wall Street Week, CNBC, and the rest of the investment pornography industry. Source: EfficientFrontier (or as PDF doc.1471)  ; see also a discussion by the site Zimbio.com (or as PDF doc.1472)
In his latest book (see our review ) Mr. Bernstein prepares four typical investor portfolios which are all based on an index approach; none are based on dividend investing in general, or the Gordon Equation in particular.
 
Our readers know that we believe that there is no investment strategy that regularly and in the long term beats the overall market, including one which consists of preferring shares that pay dividends over those which do not. Otherwise, there would be a multitude of investors (directly or through mutual funds and ETF’s) in search of superior returns who would only invest in the universe of dividend paying stocks, or divide the market for such shares into sub-segments (e.g. Miller divides the universe of shares of dividend paying stocks into three segments, segment 1 being the shares paying the highest dividends, and the segment 3 being composed of stocks paying dividends at the lowest rate). With a multitude of investors following this strategy, logic suggests that the demand for dividend-paying stocks would raise the price of those shares, so that the better returns associated with investing in those shares would quickly disappear or even reverse itself.

Source of regular income

There are investors who adopt a policy of investing in dividend-paying stocks in order to receive a reliable and regular income rather as opposed to seeking a higher total return. Increase their investment income is a goal of many investors, particularly those in retirement, and dividends are one possible source next in interest income. There is something reassuring to receive every 3 months, a cash check from the issuers of shares in our portfolio.

Dividend income has historically represented a significant portion of total market returns (total return consisting of dividends and capital gains). Since 1956, dividends have represented about 30% yield of the S & P / TSX . In the USA, since 1926 dividends have represented about one third of the total return of the S & P 500 .

At the end of 2009 the aggregate yield of all shares listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange was 2.70%,  . In the U.S. the aggregate dividend yield of the 500 companies comprising the S & P 500 in late 2009 was 1.95%; see Indicated Dividend Changes ) (the rate is currently 2.00% on a looking-forward basis according to the site IndexArb ).

But an investment policy that focuses exclusively on receiving regular income is not necessarily a protection over the long term against losses of capital caused by the effect of inflation or by stock market corrections.
Common Approaches for Increasing income portfolio, and why they may be inadvisable
For those investors who are not comfortable spending from their portfolio's balance and / or whose portfolio cash flow is insufficient for their needs, there are three primary ways to increase income: increase their overall allocation to bonds; keep their existing bond allocation but tilt it toward high-yield bonds, or tilt their existing equity allocation toward higher-dividend paying stocks. None of these strategies are preferred strategies for maintaining inflation-adjusted spending over long periods. p. 5 Vanguard (or as PDF doc.1473)
I think there is a lot of psychology involved here. Many retirees are (naturally) fearful of running out of money, and so they attempt to preserve their capital by not selling shares. Once they have constrained themselves in this manner, they try to "cheat" by increasing their cash flow for spending. They do this by purchasing high-yield investments, whether they be high-dividend stocks or mutual funds or high yield bonds or mutual funds. This is the allure of high dividend stocks. The retiree can lull himself into thinking he is preserving principal, while spending more. Comment from a user (Andy) on the Bogleheads forum on investing (or as PDF doc.1474
Less volatility

There is a belief that shares that pay dividends are less volatile. When this argument is advanced, it is typically made in the context of bear markets: if the general market declines, the sub-category consisting of dividend paying stocks would fall less. If you have a portfolio that generates sufficient dividends to meet your ongoing needs for liquidity then the market decline puts less pressure on you to sell securities and an investor who holds such securities for the long term has a better chance of seeing the market come back. See BeginnersInvest (or as PDF doc.1475)  and Don Schreiber jr. ( or as PDF doc.1461).

This phenomenon is explained by the fact that payment of a dividend provides a kind of a price floor, called yield supported shares.
As share price falls, the cash dividend divided by the share price, known as "dividend yield", gets higher. Imagine if a $ 20 stock paid a $ 1 annual cash dividend. That's a 5% return, which you would compare to all kinds of other available options such as money market accounts, bonds, etc.. If the stock fell to $ 10 per share, the yield would suddenly be 10%. The stock would become more attractive and people or companies that did have excess funds, such as insurance groups or international corporations not damaged by domestic problems, are lured in by the relatively higher returns they can earn. If a company is healthy, in a world of 5% interest rates, it's highly unlikely that it's going to have a dividend yield of 15% or 20% because someone, somewhere, with a whole lot of cash is going to step into the situation. Source: Joshua Kennon (or as PDF doc.1475) 
This volatility is also reduced due to the fact that companies that pay dividends are typically more mature and financially stable. This stability is particularly interesting in a bear market, a phenomenon that Siegel calls the bear market protector (according Tweedy doc.1457):
There are many reasons why dividend stocks are superior to non-dividend stocks.
One reason is that most stocks rise and fall on average at the same pace as the market. Stocks that pay dividends however, offer an extra incentive to hold on to them during tough times.
Another reason to hold on is that most dividend stocks represent mature companies with stable business models that generate much more in earnings than what could be re-invested back into in the business. Slower growth companies will generally experience much lower drops in share prices in comparison to hot growth sectors. Source: DividendGrowthInvestor (or as PDF doc.1478)
This reduced volatility is criticized by some, who note that even dividend-paying stocks were hit hard during the recent stock market correction.
Dividends provide very little - if any - downside protection during market corrections. The S & P 500 was down 41.82% during the September 2008 to March 2009 crash. During the same time, the SPDR S & P 500 Dividend ETF was down 35.87 per cent, which does not seem like much downside protection. Additionally, some well-known, dividend-focused funds provided no downside protection and performed worse than the S & P 500 over this period. For example, the Fidelity Dividend Growth Fund was down 46.94 per cent and the iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index was down 43.07 per cent. Source: Jason Whitby Investopedia (or as PDF doc.1479)
Favorable tax treatment

The management of a listed company must choose between not distributing profits, paying a dividend to its shareholders, buying back some of its shares to return cash to shareholders as a return of capital or borrowing more and paying interest to its creditors. The tax applicable to the company and to its shareholders and creditors will be one of the important factors that influence management’s decisions.

From the perspective of the investor, he will look at how these various forms of payments are taxed in his hands. Canadian dividends on Canadian stocks have a more favorable tax treatment than the rates applicable to interest payments. In the U.S. tax treatment of dividends is currently favorable but has varied significantly, particularly since 1983; on the history of dividend taxation in the U.S., see the paper by Stephen Bank (or as PDF doc.1480).

Followers of dividend investing will often point to the favorable tax treatment of dividend payments ( of course this argument applies primarily to taxable accounts). A Canadian residing in Ontario and taxed at the highest marginal rate, dividends are taxed at a rate of 23.06%, while interest is taxed at 46.41% (visit TaxTips.ca ); the rate differential is similar in other provinces. For this reason many investors in Canada prefer to buy stocks paying dividends rather than bonds paying interest.

We believe this is the equivalent to comparing apples and oranges, for at least two reasons:
  • in the case of interest on government bonds, we are talking about investments that are far less risky than those of shares issued by companies.
  • it would be fairer to compare the taxation of interest on government bonds to the taxation of  the fixed rate dividends on preferred shares, while most dividend-investing investors compare the tax treatment of interest to dividends on common shares. If preferred shares are already riskier than government bonds (see Risk and preferred shares on our site), common shares which rank after preferred shares in bankruptcy are even riskier.

To minimze this risk, many investors limited themselves to shares of large-cap companies and that have paid dividends for many years. This minimizes the problem but does not eliminate it, as many investors noticed during the recent decline in the stock market (note: government bonds rallied during the same period); see Jason Whitby Investopedia (or as PDF doc.1479)

Notwithstanding our reservations, it remains true that the tax systems in Canada, the USA and in many other countries advantage dividends over interest. What about a comparison between the tax treatment of dividends and capital gains? Does an investor have a tax reason to prefer shares that pay no dividends but (hopefully it) instead capital gains?

In Canada the rate of taxation of dividends and capital gains (again, for a resident of Ontario) are 26.57% and 23.20% respectively. So a dollar of dividends and a dollar received from the gain on the sale of a share would be taxed at similar rates, with a slight advantage for the capital gain. But beware: when an investor sells a share and realizes a gain, only the gain is taxed, the portion representing a return of capital is not taxed. It is the same in the USA.

The idea of tilting a portfolio toward higher-dividend paying stocks became more popular after the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act (JGTRRA) of 2003 reduced the tax rate on qualified dividends from as high as 35% to 15%. The tax rate on qualified dividends is now equal to the tax rate on net long term capital gains. This reduction led many investors to believe that there was no difference between the taxation of cash flows on qualified dividends and the taxation of capital gains. Not so: While it is true that the 15% tax rates are identical, the amounts that the tax is applied to are not. That is because a qualified dividend is taxed at 15% in its entirety, whereas if the equivalent sum is realized from a stock sale, the 15% capital gains tax will only apply to whatever portion of the sum represents a gain. As a result, both pre-and post-JGTRRA, dividends should be avoided from a tax perspective. Source: Vanguard p.7 (or as PDF doc.1480)

 
 So, it is typically more efficient tax wise to generate a cash flow from share dispositions rather than from receiving dividends.

Dollar-cost averaging

A completely different argument is advanced by other investors to support dividend investing. Instead of seeking a source of cash income to meet their ongoing liquidity needs,  these investors use their cash dividends to buy additional shares of the company that paid their dividends. In the long term this is a technique that resembles the dollar cost averaging method of investing. Under this method, if you buy 100 shares of BCE at $20, and the shares drop to $ 10, and you buy and more shares with the same amount of cash (200 shares at $10), your average cost is now $ 13.33.
 
Dollar cost averaging is a timing strategy of investing equal dollar amounts regularly and periodically over specific time periods (such as $100 monthly) in a particular investment or portfolio. By doing so, more shares are purchased when prices are low and fewer shares are purchased when prices are high. The point of this is to lower the total average cost per share of the investment, giving the investor a lower overall cost for the shares purchased over time. See Wikipedia .
 
Long-term investors also like dividends Because they make it easier to fund and automate "dollar cost averaging." In simplest terms, dollar cost averaging is the process of investing a specific amount of money on a regular basis, usually per month or quarter. When the stock price is high, the amount buys fewer shares, but when the price drops, it buys more shares. Over time, one accumulates stock at an average price well below its periodic highs. Direct reinvestment plans, or DRIPS, automatically reinvest dividends, which may improve compound returns. Source: SeekingAlpha
See also How to Invest Online , Don Schreiber (or as PDF doc.1461) and Gail 2002 dollar cost investing (or as PDF doc.1481)
 
Practitioners of dollar cost averaging typically buy additional shares by enrolling in dividend reinvestment plans. We'll talk more about these plans in a subsequent comment. Suffice it to say that the plans are a cost effective way to purchase shares with small amounts that are often otherwise difficult to invest.
 
The dollar cost averaging as a technique of investment has its critics; see Wikipedia . But in any event the use of dividends to buy additional shares differs from true dollar cost averaging because the dividend amount is so much smaller than the initial investment. Using the Rule of 72 (see Wikipedia ) an investor who buys the whole market  (ignoring changes in the price of shares, and assuming a constant annual dividend rate of 2.70%), would receive a cash amount equal to 100% of his original purchase price after only 27 years.

However, over long periods, the amount of dividends will eventually exceed that of the initial capital outlay, and the result tends to resemble the one sought by practitioners of dollar cost averaging.
 
Dividends as a form of discipline on corporate management
 
Two other arguments for investing the dividend, both difficult to quantify, relate to their alleged impact on corporate management.
 
Many investors believe that companies that pay a dividend must earn profits that are more real than other companies. They also claim that these companies are engaged in an accounting more accurate and rigorous; see DividendGrowthInvestor   (or as PDF doc.1478)
 
A company can hide its true financial position by adopting opaque accounting disclosure. The fact that a dividend paying company every 3 months has to find the funds to pay its dividend is considered a sort of assurance that its true financial position remains strong, despite any shortcomings that may exist in its financial disclosures.
Most corporations that pay a portion of their profits to investors prove that earnings are real, and not a result of the manipulation of GAAP rules. DividendGrowthInvestor
The Quality of Earnings is Higher
It's hard to fake cash. When shareholders get checks in the mail, there is at least some proof that the earnings are not just accounting magic. This makes people more comfortable holding the stock during uncertain times because they know there is some value there. Source Joshua Kennon (or as PDF doc.1475)
 
A policy to pay every 3 months a cash dividend restricts the flexibility of corporate management. It would arguably be less inclined to squander its assets on fanciful projects that might prejudice the liquidity necessary to pay its dividend.
 
Another argument one commonly hears is that the requirement to pay dividends tempers management's spending elsewhere, "saving corporations from themselves," as one columnist put it "Wasteful, egomaniacal corporate spending is rampant. It's not that executives are not trying. But lacking a strong incentive to return the cash to shareholders, optimistic CEOs waste your money chasing projects that do not work out. "Often, executives are compensated based on pre-tax earnings goals instead of per-share goals, and this situation can misalign executive and shareholder interests. Not all executives make bad capital allocations, but this illustrates the importance of studying management's historical capital allocation. Source: Lance Helfer  SeekingAlpha  (or as PDF doc.1464 ).
 
Conclusion
 
We hope this overview has enabled you to appreciate the pro’s and con’s of the advantages typically put forward by the advocates of dividend investing. In a future commentary we look at the disadvantages of this technique.


Last Updated ( Saturday, 29 January 2011 )
 
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